Winter 2023 Final Exam

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Instructor(s): Janine Tiefenbruck

This exam was administered in-person. The exam was closed-notes, except students were provided a copy of the DSC 10 Reference Sheet. No calculators were allowed. Students had 3 hours to take this exam.


Video 🎥

Here’s a walkthrough video of Problems 6-9, and here’s a walkthrough video of Problems 10-14.


The DataFrame games contains information about a sample of popular games, including board games, dice games, and card games. The data comes from Board Game Geek, a popular website and vibrant online community for game enthusiasts.

The columns of games are as follows.

The first few rows of games are shown below (though games has many more rows than pictured here).


Throughout this exam, we will refer to games repeatedly. Assume that we have already run import babypandas as bpd and import numpy as np.


Problem 1

Let’s start by correcting the data in the "Rating" column. All the values in this column are strings of length 4. In addition, some strings use commas in place of a dot to represent a decimal point. Select the options below that evaluate to a Series containing the values in the "Rating" column, appropriately changed to floats.

Note: The Series method .str.replace uses the string method .replace on every string in a Series.

Important! For the rest of this exam, we will assume that the values in the "Rating" column have been correctly changed to floats.

Answer: Options 2 and 3

Option 1: Let’s look at the code piece by piece to understand why this does not work. games.get("Rating") gives you the column "Rating" as a Series. As per the note, .str.replace(",", ".") can be used on a Series, and will replace all commas with periods. The issue is with the use of the float function; the float function can convert a single string to a float, like float("3.14"), but not an entire Series of floats. This will cause an error making this option wrong.

Option 2: Once again we are getting "Rating" as a Series and replacing the commas with periods. We then apply float() to the Series, which will successfully convert all of the values into floats.

Option 3: Following the same logic as above, we are getting "Rating" as a Series, but change it up by replacing the commas with an empty string, which is effectively nothing. Notice this makes the numbers 100 times too big. Since there are no decimals we can convert the Series’ strings into integers, which is done by doing .apply(int). Finally, because the elements inside of "Rating" are 100 times too large it can be fixed by dividing them all by 100.

Option 4: Again, we are getting "Rating" as a Series and replacing the commas with an empty string. The values inside of "Rating" are then converted to floats, which is fine, but remember, that the numbers are 100 times too big. This means we have altered the actual value inappropriately, which makes this option incorrect.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 67%.


Problem 2

You are unsure whether it would make sense to use "BGG Rank" as the index of the games DataFrame, because you are unsure whether this column has duplicate values. Perhaps, for example, two games are tied and both have a rank of 6.

Select all of the expressions below that evaluate to True when the "BGG Rank" column could be used as the index (no duplicates), and False when it could not be used as the index (duplicates). In other words, these are the expressions that can be used to detect the presence of duplicate values.

Note: We will not set the index of games, instead we’ll leave it with the default index.

Answer: Options 2 and 3

Option 2: games.groupby(“BGG Rank”).count() gets all of the unique “BGG Rank”’s and puts them into the index. Then by using the aggregate function .count() we are able to turn all the remaining columns into the number of times each “BGG Rank” appears. Since all of the columns are the same we just need to get one of them to access the counts. In this case we get the column “Name” by doing .get(“Name”). Finally, when we do .max() == 1 we are checking to see if the maximum count for the number of unique “BGG Rank”’s is one, which would mean there are no duplicates.

Option 3: Let’s work from the inside out for this line of code: len(np.unique(games.get(“BGG Rank”))). Like all the others we are getting a Series of “BGG Rank”. np.unique() gives us an array with unique elements inside of the Series. When we do len() we are figuring out how many unique elements there are inside of “BGG Rank”. Recall games.shape[0] gets us the number of rows in games. This means that we are trying to see if the number of rows is the same as the number of unique elements inside of “BGG Rank”, and if they are then that means they are all unique and should equal 0.

Option 1: games.get(“BGG Rank”) will get you a Series of the “BGG Rank” column. np.arange(games.shape[0]) will create a numpy array that will go from zero to games.shape[0], which is the number of rows in the games DataFrame. So it would look something like: arr([0, 1, 2, . . ., n]), where n is the number of rows in games. By doing: games.get(“BGG Rank”) - np.arange(games.shape[0]) one is decreasing each rank by an increasing factor of one each time. This essentially gives a Series of numbers, but it doesn’t actually have anything to do with uniqueness. We are simply finding if the difference between “BGG Rank” and the numpy array leads to a maximum of 1. So although the code works it does not tell us if there are duplicates.

Option 4: games.get(“BGG Rank”).max() will give us the maximum element inside of “BGG Rank”. Note, games.shape[0] gets us the number of rows in games. We should never make assumptions about what is inside of “BGG Rank”. This means we don’t know if the values line up nicely like: 1, 2, 3, . . . games.shape[0], so the maximum element could be unique, but be bigger than games.shape[0]. Knowing this, when we do the whole line for Option 4 it is not guaranteed to be zero when “BGG Rank” is unique or not, so it does not detect duplicates.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 76%.


Problem 3

Notice that "Strategy Games" and "Thematic Games" are two of the possible domains, and that a game can belong to multiple domains.

Define the variables strategy and thematic follows.

strategy = games.get("Domains").str.contains("Strategy Games")
thematic = games.get("Domains").str.contains("Thematic Games")


Problem 3.1

What is the data type of strategy?

Answer: Series

strategy will give you a Series. This is because games.get(“Domains”) will give you one column, a Series, and then .str.contains(“Strategy Games”) will convert those values to True if it contains that string and False otherwise, but it will not actually change the Series to a DataFrame, a bool, or a str.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 81%.


Problem 3.2

Suppose we randomly select one of the "Strategy Games" from the games DataFrame.

What is the probability that the randomly selected game is not also one of the "Thematic Games"? Write a single line of Python code that evaluates to this probability, using the variables strategy and thematic in your solution.

Note: For this question and others that require one line of code, it’s fine if you need to write your solution on multiple lines, as long as it is just one line of Python code. Please do write on multiple lines to make sure your answer fits within the box provided.

Answer: (games[(strategy == True) & (thematic == False)].shape[0] / games[strategy == True].shape[0]) or 1 - games[strategy & thematic].shape[0] / games[strategy].shape[0]

The problem is asking us to find the probability that a selected game from “Strategy Games” will not be in “Thematic Games”. Recall that this is the probability that given “Strategy Games” will it not be in “Thematic Games”, which would look like this: P(“Thematic Games” Compliment|“Strategy Games”). This means the formula would look like: (“Thematic Games” Compliment and “Strategy Games”)/“Strategy Games”

This means one possible solution for this would be: (games[(strategy == True) & (thematic == False)].shape[0] / games[strategy == True].shape[0] This solution works because we are following the formula to find the probability of thematic complement and strategy games over the number of times “Strategy Games” are True. Doing games[query_condition] gives us the games DataFrame where strategy == True and thematic == False. Another important thing is that for (baby)pandas we always use the keyword & and not and. Note that we are using .shape[0] to get the number of rows or times that True shows up for “Strategy Games” and the number of rows or times that False shows up for “Thematic Games” Compliment.

Another possible strategy would be using the complement rule: Which would be: P(“Thematic Games” Compliment) = 1 - P(“Thematic Games”). This would lead you to an answer like: (1 - games[strategy & thematic].shape[0]) / games[strategy].shape[0]. games[strategy & thematic].shape[0]) finds you the probability of P(“Thematic Games”), so when plugged into the equation above we are able to find P(“Thematic Games” Compliment).


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 43%.


Problem 3.3

Many of the games in the games DataFrame belong to more than one domain. We want to identify the number of games that belong to only one domain. Select all of the options below that would correctly calculate the number of games that belong to only one domain. Hint: Don’t make any assumptions about the possible domains.

Answer: Options 3 and 4

Let’s take a closer look at why Option 3 and Option 4 are correct.

Option 3: Option 3 first queries the games DataFrame to only keep games with one “Domains”. games.get(“Domains”).str.split(“,”).apply(len) == 1 gets the “Domains” column and splits all of them if they contain a comma. If the value does have a comma then it will create a list. For example let’s say the domain was “Strategy Games”, “Thematic Games” then after doing str.split(“,”) we would have the list: [“Strategy Games”, “Thematic Games”]. Any row with a list will evaluate to False. This means we are only keeping values where there is one domain. The next part .groupby(“Domains”).count().get(“Name”).sum() makes a DataFrame with an index of the unique domains and the number of times those appear. Note that all the other columns: “Name”, “Mechanics”, “Play Time”, “Complexity”, “Rating”, and “BGG Rank” now evaluate to the same thing, the number of times a unique domain appears. That means by doing .get(“Name”).sum() we are adding up all the number of times a unique domain appears, which would get us the number of games that belong to only one domain.

Option 4: Option 4 starts off exactly like Option 3, but instead of doing .groupby() it gets the number of rows using .shape[0], which will give us the number of games that belong to only one domain.

Option 1: Let’s step through why Option 1 is incorrect. games.get(“Domains”).str.split(“ ”).apply(len) == 2.sum() gives you a Series of the “Domains” column, then splits each domain by a space. We then get the length of that list, check if the length is equal to 2, which would mean there are two elements in the list, and finally get the sum of all elements in the list who had two elements because of the split. Remember that True evaluates to 1 and False evaluates to 0, so we are getting the number of elements that were split into two. It does not tell us the number of games that belong to only one domain.

Option 2: Let’s step through why Option 2 is also incorrect. (games.get(“Domains”).apply(len) == 1).sum() checks to see if each element in the column “Domains” has only one character. Remember when you apply len() to a string then we get the number of characters in that string. This is essentially counting the number of domains that have 1 letter. Thus, it does not tell us the number of games that belong to only one domain.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 86%.



Problem 4

We want to create a bootstrapped 95% confidence interval for the median "Complexity" of all cooperative games, given a sample of 100 cooperative games.

Suppose coop_sample is a DataFrame containing 100 rows of games, all of which are cooperative games. We’ll calculate the endpoints left and right of our bootstrapped 95% confidence interval as follows.

medians = np.array([])
for i in np.arange(10000):
    resample = coop_sample.sample(100, replace=True)
    median = np.median(resample.get("Complexity"))
    medians = np.append(medians, median)
left = np.percentile(medians, 2.5)
right = np.percentile(medians, 97.5)


Problem 4.1

Now consider the interval defined by the endpoints left_2 and right_2, calculated as follows.

medians_2 = np.array([])
for i in np.arange(10000):
    shuffle = coop_sample.assign(shuffle=
    np.random.permutation(coop_sample.get("Complexity")))
    resample_2 = shuffle.sample(100, replace=True)
    median_2 = np.median(resample_2.get("shuffle"))
    medians_2 = np.append(medians_2, median_2)
left_2 = np.percentile(medians_2, 2.5)
right_2 = np.percentile(medians_2, 97.5)

Which interval should be wider, [left, right] or [left_2, right_2]?

Answer: Both about the same.

It’s important to understand what each code block above is doing in order to answer this question. Let’s take a look at the original medians code. We are sampling from the coop_sample to create a shuffled coop_sample, we then get the median of the column “Complexity” and append it to the medians array. Finally, we find the left and right percentiles of the medians array.

Now we will look at what medians_2 is doing. It looks like we are adding a new column called “shuffle” to coop_sample. The column “shuffle” is a shuffled version of “Complexity”. Then we are taking the shuffle DataFrame with the “shuffle” column and sampling from “shuffle” to randomize it again. Then we get the median of this shuffled column and find its percentiles.

Essentially, both of these blocks of code are taking the “Complexity” column, shuffling it, finding the median of the shuffled column, and then finding the confidence interval. Since it is being done on the same column and in basically the same way both intervals [left, right] and [left_2, right_2] are about the same.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 77%.


Problem 4.2

Now consider the interval defined by the endpoints left_3 and right_3, calculated as follows.

medians_3 = np.array([])
for i in np.arange(10000):
    resample_3 = (coop_sample.sample(100, replace=True)
        .sample(100, replace=True))
    median_3 = np.median(resample_3.get("Complexity"))
    medians_3 = np.append(medians_3, median_3)
left_3 = np.percentile(medians_3, 2.5)
right_3 = np.percentile(medians_3, 97.5)

Which interval should be wider, [left, right] or [left_3, right_3]?

Answer: [left, right]

[left, right] will be wider than [left_3, right_3] because we are more likely to sample the same elements in medians_3. When we .sample(100, replace = True) twice we are more likely to have elements that are repeating each other, which would make our percentiles smaller. The rest of the code is similar to medians.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 50%.



Problem 5

As in the previous question, let coop_sample be a sample of 100 rows of games, all corresponding to cooperative games.

Define samp and resamp as follows.

samp = coop_sample.get("Complexity")
resamp = coop_sample.sample(100, replace=True).get("Complexity")


Problem 5.1

Which of the following statements could evaluate to True? Select all that are possible.

Answer: Options 2 and 3

Option 2: This is correct because it is possible for resamp to be shuffled in such a way that the number of unique elements are not the same.

Option 3: This is correct because it is possible for resamp to pull the same values more often making it less unique than samp.

Option 1: The reason that this is incorrect is because samp.unique() has the most possible unique elements inside of it. When we shuffle it using coop_sample.sample(100, replace = True) we could pull the same value multiple times, making it less unique.


Difficulty: ⭐️

The average score on this problem was 91%.


Problem 5.2

Which of the following statements could evaluate to True? Select all that are possible.

Answer: Options 1, 2, and 3

Option 1: It might be helpful to recall what exactly the column “Complexity” holds. In this case it holds the average complexity of the game on a scale of 1 to 5. The code is trying to find if the number of ones in samp and resamp are different. It is possible that when shuffling due to replace = True that resamp has more ones inside of it than samp.

Option 2: Once again it is possible that when shuffled resamp has the same number of ones as samp does.

Option 3: When we shuffle coop_sample there is no guarantee that one will sample more ones and instead other averages could be selected. This means it is possible for the number of ones in samp can be greater than the number of ones in resamp.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 83%.


Problem 5.3

Which of the following statements could evaluate to True? Select all that are possible.

Answer: Options 1 and 2

Option 1: It is possible when shuffled that samp’s original minimum is never sampled, making resamp’s minimum to be greater than samp’s min.

Option 2:: If samp’s original min is sampled then it will be the same minimum that appears inside of resamp.

Option 3: It is impossible for resamp’s minimum to be less than samp’s minimum. This is because all of resamp’s values come from samp. That means there cannot be a smaller average inside of resamp that never appears in samp.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 83%.


Problem 5.4

Which of the following statements could evaluate to True? Select all that are possible.

Answer: Options 1, 2, and 3

Option 1: np.std() gives us the standard deviation of the array we give it. When we do np.std(samp) we are finding the standard deviation of “Complexity”. When we do np.std(resamp) we are finding the standard deviation of “Complexity”, which may grab values multiple times. Since we are grabbing values multiple times it is possible to have a standard deviation become smaller if we continuously grab smaller values.

Option 2: If the resamp gets us the same values as samp we would end up with the same standard deviation, which would make np.std(samp) == np.std(resamp).

Option 3: Similar to Option 1, we may grab many values which are on the larger end, which could increase our standard deviation.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 79%.



Problem 6

Choose the best tool to answer each of the following questions. Note the following:


Problem 6.1

Are strategy games rated higher than non-strategy games?

Answer: Permutation testing

Recall that we use a permutation test when we want to determine if two samples are from the same population. The question is asking if “strategy games” are rated higher than “non-strategy games” meaning we have two samples and want to know if they come from the same or different rating populations.

We would not use hypothesis testing here because we are not trying to quantify how weird a test statistic between strategy games and non-strategy games.

We would not use bootstrapping here because we are not given a single sample that we want to re-sample from.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 58%.


Problem 6.2

What is the mean complexity of all games?

Answer: Bootstrapping

Bootstrapping is the act of resampling from a sample. We use bootstrapping because the original sample looks like the population, so by resampling the sample we are able to quantify our uncertainty of the mean complexity of all games. We can use bootstrapping to approximate the distribution of the sample statistic, which is the mean.

We would not use hypothesis testing here because we do not have the population distribution or a sample to test with.

We would not use permutation testing here because we are not trying to find if two samples are from the same population.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 89%.


Problem 6.3

Are there an equal number of cooperative and non-cooperative games?

Answer: Hypothesis Testing

Recall hypothesis tests quantify how “weird” a result is. We use it when we have a population distribution and one sample and we are trying to see if that sample was drawn from the population. In this instance we are trying to find if there are an equal number of cooperative and non-cooperative games. The population distribution is our DataFrame and we are trying to see if the cooperative games and non-cooperative games in our sample come from the same population.

We would not use permutation testing here because we are not given two samples rather one sample with two sub-groups: cooperative and non-cooperative games.

We would not use bootstrapping because we are not re-sampling from the sample we are given to find a test statistic.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 75%.


Problem 6.4

Are games with more than one domain more complex than games with one domain?

Answer: Permutation testing

Once again we would use permutation testing to solve this problem because we have two samples: games with more than one domain and games with one domain. We do not know the population distribution.

We would not use hypothesis testing because we were not given a population distribution to test the sample against.

We would not use bootstrapping because we are not re-sampling from the sample to find a test statistic.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 72%.



Problem 7

We use the regression line to predict a game’s "Rating" based on its "Complexity". We find that for the game Wingspan, which has a "Complexity" that is 2 points higher than the average, the predicted "Rating" is 3 points higher than the average.


Problem 7.1

What can you conclude about the correlation coefficient r?

Answer: r > 0

To answer this problem, it’s useful to recall the regression line in standard units:

\text{predicted } y_{\text{(su)}} = r \cdot x_{\text{(su)}}

If a value is positive in standard units, it means that it is above the average of the distribution that it came from, and if a value is negative in standard units, it means that it is below the average of the distribution that it came from. Since we’re told that Wingspan has a "Complexity" that is 2 points higher than the average, we know that x_{\text{(su)}} is positive. Since we’re told that the predicted "Rating" is 3 points higher than the average, we know that \text{predicted } y_{\text{(su)}} must also be positive. As a result, r must also be positive, since you can’t multiply a positive number (x_{\text{(su)}}) by a negative number and end up with another positive number.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 74%.


Problem 7.2

What can you conclude about the standard deviations of “Complexity” and “Rating”?

Answer: SD of "Complexity" < SD of "Rating"

Since the distance of the predicted "Rating" from its average is larger than the distance of the "Complexity" from its average, it might be reasonable to guess that the values in the "Rating" column are more spread out. This is true, but let’s see concretely why that’s the case.

Let’s start with the equation of the regression line in standard units from the previous subpart. Remember that here, x refers to "Complexity" and y refers to "Rating".

\text{predicted } y_{\text{(su)}} = r \cdot x_{\text{(su)}}

We know that to convert a value to standard units, we subtract the value by the mean of the column it came from, and divide by the standard deviation of the column it came from. As such, x_{\text{(su)}} = \frac{x - \text{mean of } x}{\text{SD of } x}. We can substitute this relationship in the regression line above, which gives us

\frac{\text{predicted } y - \text{mean of } y}{\text{SD of } y} = r \cdot \frac{x - \text{mean of } x}{\text{SD of } x}

To simplify things, let’s use what we were told. We were told that the predicted "Rating" was 3 points higher than average. This means that the numerator of the left side, \text{predicted } y - \text{mean of } y, is equal to 3. Similarly, we were told that the "Complexity" was 2 points higher than average, so x - \text{mean of } x is 2. Then, we have:

\frac{3}{\text{SD of } y} = \frac{2r}{\text{SD of }x}

Note that for convenience, we included r in the numerator on the right-hand side.

Remember that our goal is to compare the SD of "Rating" (y) to the SD of "Complexity" (x). We now have an equation that relates these two quantities! Since they’re both currently on the denominator, which can be tricky to work with, let’s take the reciprocal (i.e. “flip”) both fractions.

\frac{\text{SD of } y}{3} = \frac{\text{SD of }x}{2r}

Now, re-arranging gives us

\text{SD of } y \cdot \frac{2r}{3} = \text{SD of }x

Since we know that r is somewhere between 0 and 1, we know that \frac{2r}{3} is somewhere between 0 and \frac{2}{3}. This means that \text{SD of } x is somewhere between 0 and two-thirds of the value of \text{SD of } y, which means that no matter what, \text{SD of } x < \text{SD of } y. Remembering again that here "Complexity" is our x and "Rating" is our y, we have that the SD of "Complexity" is less than the SD of "Rating".


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 42%.



Problem 8

Suppose that for children’s games, "Play Time" and "Rating" are negatively linearly associated due to children having short attention spans. Suppose that for children’s games, the standard deviation of "Play Time" is twice the standard deviation of "Rating", and the average "Play Time" is 10 minutes. We use linear regression to predict the "Rating" of a children’s game based on its "Play Time". The regression line predicts that Don’t Break the Ice, a children’s game with a "Play Time" of 8 minutes will have a "Rating" of 4. Which of the following could be the average "Rating" for children’s games?

Answer: 3.1

Let’s recall the formulas for the regression line in original units, since we’re given information in original units in this question (such as the fact that for a "Play Time" of 8 minutes, the predicted "Rating" is 4 stars). Remember that throughout this question, "Play Time" is our x and "Rating" is our y.

The regression line is of the form y = mx + b, where

m = r \cdot \frac{\text{SD of } y}{\text{SD of }x}, b = \text{mean of }y - m \cdot \text{mean of } x

There’s a lot of information provided to us in the question – let’s think about what it means in the context of our xs and ys.

  • The first piece is that r is negative, so -1 \leq r < 0.
  • The second piece is that \text{SD of } x = 2 \cdot (\text{SD of } y). Equivalently, we can say that \frac{\text{SD of } y}{\text{SD of } x} = \frac{1}{2}. This form is convenient, because it’s close to the definition of the slope of the regression line, m. Using this fact, the slope of the regression line is m = r \cdot \frac{\text{SD of } y}{\text{SD of }x} = r \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{r}{2}.
  • The \text{mean of } x is 10. This means that the intercept of the regression line, b, is b = \text{mean of }y - m \cdot \text{mean of } x = \text{mean of }y - \frac{r}{2} \cdot 10 = \text{mean of }y - 5r.
  • If x is 8, the predicted y is 4.

Given all of this information, we need to find possible values for the \text{mean of } y. Substituting our known values for m and b into y = mx + b gives us

y = \frac{r}{2} x + \text{mean of }y - 5r

Now, using the fact that if if x = 8, the predicted y is 4, we have

\begin{align*}4 &= \frac{r}{2} \cdot 8 + \text{mean of }y - 5r\\4 &= 4r - 5r + \text{mean of }y\\ 4 + r &= \text{mean of} y\end{align*}

Cool! We now know that the \text{mean of } y is 4 + r. We know that r must satisfy the relationship -1 \leq r < 0. By adding 4 to all pieces of this inequality, we have that 3 \leq r + 4 < 4, which means that 3 \leq \text{mean of } y < 4. Of the four options provided, only one is greater than or equal to 3 and less than 4, which is 3.1.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 55%.


Problem 9

The function perm_test should take three inputs:

  1. df, a DataFrame.
  2. labels, a string. The name of a column in df that contains two distinct values, which signify the groups in a permutation test.
  3. data, a string. The name of a column in df that contains numerical data.

The function should return an array of 1000 simulated differences of group means, under the assumption of the null hypothesis in a permutation test, namely that data in both groups come from the same population.

The smaller of the two group labels should be first in the subtraction. For example, if the two values in the labels column are "dice game" and "card game", we would compute the difference as the mean of the "card game" group minus the mean of the "dice game" group, because "card game" comes before "dice game" alphabetically. Note that groupby orders the rows in ascending order by default.

An incorrect implementation of perm_test is provided below.

1 def perm_test(df, labels, data):
2   diffs = np.array([])
3   for i in np.arange(1000):
4       df.assign(shuffled=np.random permutation(df.get(data)))
5       means = df.groupby(labels).mean().get(data)
6       diff = means.iloc[0] - means.iloc[1]
7       diffs = np.append(diffs, diff)
8       return diffs

Three lines of code above are incorrect. Your job is to identify which lines of code are incorrect, and describe briefly in English how you would fix them. You don’t need to explain why the current code is wrong, just how to fix it.


Problem 9.1

The first line that is incorrect is line number: _______

Explain in one sentence how to change this line. Do not write code.

Answer: Line 4; We need to save this as df.

Recall that df.assign() does not save the added column to the original df, which means that we need to save line 4 to a variable called df.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 55%.


Problem 9.2

The second line that is incorrect is line number: _______

Explain in one sentence how to change this line. Do not write code.

Answer: Line 5; We need to get "shuffled" instead of data.

Recall a permutation test is simulating if samples come from the same population. This means we need to shuffle the data and use it to see if that would change our result/view. This means in line 5 we want to use the shuffled data, so we need to do .get(“shuffled”) instead of .get(“data”).


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 50%.


Problem 9.3

The third line that is incorrect is line number: _______

Explain in one sentence how to change this line. Do not write code.

Answer: Line 8; Move it outside of the for-loop (unindent).

If we have return inside of the for-loop it will terminate after it goes through the code once! This means all we have to do is unindent return, moving it outside of the for-loop.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 67%.


Suppose you’ve fixed all the issues with this function, as you described above. Now, you want to use this corrected function to run a permutation test with the following hypotheses:

For this permutation test, consider a children’s game to be a game that has "Children’s Games" as part of the "Domains" column. A dice-rolling game is one that has "Dice Rolling" as part of the "Mechanics" column, and a non-dice-rolling game is one that does not have "Dice Rolling" as part of the "Mechanics" column.

The DataFrame with_dice is defined as follows.

with_dice = games.assign(isDice = games.get("Mechanics").str.contains("Dice Rolling"))


Problem 9.4

Write one line of code that creates an array called simulated_diffs containing 1000 simulated differences in group means for this permutation test. You should call your perm_test function here!

Answer:

simulated diffs = perm_test(with dice[with dice.get("Domains").str.contains("Children’s Games")], "isDice", "Play Time")

The inputs to perm_test, in order, are:

  • A DataFrame containing all relevant information.
  • The name of the column in that DataFrame that contains group labels.
  • The name of the column in that DataFrame that contains numbers.

Here, the only relevant information is information on "Children's Games", so the first argument to perm_test must be a DataFrame in which the "Domains" column contains "Children's Games", as described in the question.

Then, since we’re testing whether the distribution of "Play Time" is different for dice games and non-dice games, we know that the column with group labels is "isDice" (which is defined in the call to .assign that is provided to us in the question), and the column with numerical information is "Play Time".


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 60%.


Problem 9.5

Suppose we’ve stored the observed value of the test statistic for this permutation test in the variable obs_diff. Fill in the blank below to find the p-value for this permutation test.

Answer: >=

We want to find if the simulated_diffs are more or as extreme as the obs_diff. To be as or more extreme that means it needs an equal sign. The other part of this is it cannot be smaller because then it is not as extreme, which means the answer must be >=.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 57%.



Problem 10

It’s your first time playing a new game called Brunch Menu. The deck contains 96 cards, and each player will be dealt a hand of 9 cards. The goal of the game is to avoid having certain cards, called Rotten Egg cards, which come with a penalty at the end of the game. But you’re not sure how many of the 96 cards in the game are Rotten Egg cards. So you decide to use the Central Limit Theorem to estimate the proportion of Rotten Egg cards in the deck based on the 9 random cards you are dealt in your hand.


Problem 10.1

You are dealt 3 Rotten Egg cards in your hand of 9 cards. You then construct a CLT-based 95% confidence interval for the proportion of Rotten Egg cards in the deck based on this sample. Approximately, how wide is your confidence interval?

Choose the closest answer, and use the following facts:

Answer: \frac{17}{27}

A Central Limit Theorem-based 95% confidence interval for a population proportion is given by the following:

\left[ \text{Sample Proportion} - 2 \cdot \frac{\text{Sample SD}}{\sqrt{\text{Sample Size}}}, \text{Sample Proportion} + 2 \cdot \frac{\text{Sample SD}}{\sqrt{\text{Sample Size}}} \right]

Note that this interval uses the fact that (about) 95% of values in a normal distribution are within 2 standard deviations of the mean. It’s key to divide by \sqrt{\text{Sample Size}} when computing the standard deviation because the distribution that is roughly normal is the distribution of the sample mean (and hence, sample proportion), not the distribution of the sample itself.

The width of the above interval – that is, the right endpoint minus the left endpoint – is

\text{width} = 4 \cdot \frac{\text{Sample SD}}{\sqrt{\text{Sample Size}}}

From the provided hint, we have that

\text{Sample SD} = \sqrt{(\text{Prop. of 0s}) \cdot (\text{Prop of 1s})} = \sqrt{\frac{3}{9} \cdot \frac{6}{9}} = \frac{\sqrt{18}}{9}

Then, since we know that the sample size is 9 and that \sqrt{18} is about \frac{17}{4}, we have

\text{width} = 4 \cdot \frac{\text{Sample SD}}{\sqrt{\text{Sample Size}}} = 4 \cdot \frac{\frac{\sqrt{18}}{9}}{\sqrt{9}} = 4 \cdot \frac{\sqrt{18}}{9 \cdot 3} = 4 \cdot \frac{\frac{17}{4}}{27} = \frac{17}{27}


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 51%.


Problem 10.2

Which of the following are limitations of trying to use the Central Limit Theorem for this particular application? Select all that apply.

Answer: Options 1 and 2

Option 1: We use Central Limit Theorem (CLT) for large random samples, and a sample of 9 is considered to be very small. This makes it difficult to use CLT for this problem.

Option 2: Recall CLT happens when our sample is drawn with replacement. When we are handed nine cards we are never replacing cards back into our deck, which means that we are sampling without replacement.

Option 3: This is wrong because CLT states that a large sample is approximately a normal distribution even if the data itself is not normally distributed. This means it doesn’t matter if our data had not been normally distributed if we had a large enough sample we could use CLT.

Option 4: This is wrong because CLT does apply to the sample proportion distribution. Recall that proportions can be treated like means.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 77%.



Problem 11

In recent years, there has been an explosion of board games that teach computer programming skills, including CoderMindz, Robot Turtles, and Code Monkey Island. Many such games were made possible by Kickstarter crowdfunding campaigns.

Suppose that in one such game, players must prove their understanding of functions and conditional statements by answering questions about the function wham, defined below. Like players of this game, you’ll also need to answer questions about this function.

1 def wham(a, b):
2   if a < b:
3       return a + 2
4   if a + 2 == b:
5       print(a + 3)
6       return b + 1
7   elif a - 1 > b:
8       print(a)
9       return a + 2
10  else:
11      return a + 1


Problem 11.1

What is printed when we run print(wham(6, 4))?

Answer: 6 8

Imagine there is a pointer from a to 6 and from b to 4. In the function we look at the first if-statement. The if-statement is checking if a, which points to 6, is less than b, which points to 4. We know 6 is not less than 4, so we skip this section of code. Next we see the second if-statement which checks if a, 6, plus 2 equals b, 4. We know 6 + 2 = 8, which is not equal to 4. We then look at the elif-statement which asks if a, 6, minus 1 is greater than b, 4. This is True! 6 - 1 = 5 and 5 > 4. So we print(a), which will spit out 6 and then we will return a + 2. a + 2 is 6 + 2. This means the function wham will print 6 and return 8.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 81%.


Problem 11.2

Give an example of a pair of integers a and b such that wham(a, b) returns a + 1.

Answer: Any pair of integers a, b with a = b or with a = b + 1

The desired output is a + 1. So we want to look at the function wham and see which condition is necessary to get the output a + 1. It turns out that this can be found in the else-block, which means we need to find an a and b that will not satisfy any of the if or elif-statements.

If a = b, so for example a points to 4 and b points to 4 then: a is not less than b (4 < 4), a + 2 is not equal to b (4 + 2 = 6 and 6 does not equal 4), and a - 1 is not greater than b (4 - 1= 3) and 3 is not greater than 4.

If a = b + 1 this means that a is greater than b, so for example if b is 4 then a is 5 (4 + 1 = 5). If we look at the if-statements then a < b is not true (5 is greater than 4), a + 2 == b is also not true (5 + 2 = 7 and 7 does not equal 4), and a - 1 > b is also not true (5 - 1 = 4 and 4 is equal not greater than 4). This means it will trigger the else statement.


Difficulty: ⭐️

The average score on this problem was 94%.


Problem 11.3

Which of the following lines of code will never be executed, for any input?

Answer: 6

For this to happen: a + 2 == b then a must be less than b by 2. However if a is less than b it will trigger the first if-statement. This means this second if-statement will never run, which means that the return on line 6 never happens.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 79%.



Problem 12

In the game Spot It, players race to identify an object that appears on two different cards. Each card contains images of eight objects, and exactly one object is common to both cards.


Problem 12.1

Suppose the objects appearing on each card are stored in an array, and our task is to find the object that appears on both cards. Complete the function find_match that takes as input two arrays of 8 objects each, with one object in common, and returns the name of the object in both arrays.

For example, suppose we have two arrays defined as follows.

objects1 = np.array(["dragon", "spider", "car", "water droplet", "spiderweb", "candle", "ice cube", "ladybug"])
objects2 = np.array(["zebra", "lock", "dinosaur", "eye", "fire", "shamrock", "spider", "carrot"])

Then find_match(objects1, objects2) should evaluate to "spider". Your function must include a for loop, and it must take at most three lines of code (not counting the line with def).

Answer:

def find_match(array1, array2):
    for obj in array1:
        if obj in array2:
            return obj

We first need to define the function find_match(). We can gather since we are feeding in two groups of objects we are giving find_match() two parameters, which we have called array1 and array2. The next step is utilizing a for-loop. We want to look at all the objects inside of array1 and then check using an if-statement if that object exists in array2. If it does, we can stop the loop and return the object!


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 67%.


Problem 12.2

Now suppose the objects appearing on each card are stored in a DataFrame with 8 rows and one column called "object". Complete the function find_match_again that takes as input two such DataFrames with one object in common and returns the nameof the object in both DataFrames.

Your function may not call the previous function find_match, and it must take exactly one line of code (not counting the line with def).

Answer:

def find_match_again(df1, df2)
    return df1.merge(df2, on = “object”).get(“object”).iloc[0]

Once again we need to define our function and then have two parameters for the two DataFrames. Recall the method .merge() which will combine two DataFrames and only give us the elements that are shared. The directions tell us that both DataFrames have a single column called “object”. Since we want to combine the DataFrames on that column we do have: df1.merge(df2, on = “object”). Once we have merged the DataFrames we should have only 1 row with the index and the column “object”. To isolate the element inside of this DataFrame we can first get a Series by doing .get(“object”) and then do .iloc[0] to get the element inside of the Series.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 46%.



Problem 13

Dylan, Harshi, and Selim are playing a variant of a dice game called Left, Center, Right (LCR) in which there are 9 chips (tokens) and 9 dice. Each player starts off with 3 chips. Each die has the following six sides: L, C, R, Dot, Dot, Dot.

During a given player’s turn, they must roll a number of dice equal to the number of chips they currently have. Each die determines what to do with one chip:

  1. L means give the chip to the player on their left.
  2. R means give the chip to the player on their right.
  3. C means put the chip in the center of the table. This chip is now out of play.
  4. Dot means do nothing (or keep the chip).

Since the number of dice rolled is the same as the number of chips the player has, the dice rolls determine exactly what to do with each chip. There is no strategy at all in this simple game.

Dylan will take his turn first (we’ll call him Player 0), then at the end of his turn, he’ll pass the dice to his left and play will continue clockwise around the table. Harshi (Player 1) will go next, then Selim (Player 2), then back to Dylan, and so on.

Note that if someone has no chips when it’s their turn, they are still in the game and they still take their turn, they just roll 0 dice because they have 0 chips. The game ends when only one person is holding chips, and that person is the winner. If 300 turns have been taken (100 turns each), the game will end and we’ll declare it a tie.

The function simulate_lcr below simulates one full game of Left, Center, Right and returns the number of turns taken in that game. Some parts of the code are not provided. You will need to fill in the code for the parts marked with a blank. The parts marked with ... are not provided, but you don’t need to fill them in because they are very similar to other parts that you do need to complete.

Hint: Recall that in Python, the % operator gives the remainder upon division. For example 12 % 5 is 2.

def simulate_lcr():
    # stores the number of chips for players 0, 1, 2 (in that order)
    player_chips = np.array([3,3,3])

    # maximum of 300 turns allotted for the game
    for i in np.arange(300):

        # which player's turn it is currently (0, 1, or 2)
        current_player = __(a)__

        # stores what the player rolled on their turn
        roll = np.random.choice(["L", "C", "R", "Dot", "Dot", "Dot"], __(b)__)

        # count the number of instances of L, C, and R
        L_count = __(c)__
        C_count = ...
        R_count = ...

        if current_player == 0:
            # update player_chips based on what player 0 rolled
            player_chips = player_chips + np.array(__(d)__)
        elif current_player == 1:
            # update player_chips based on what player 1 rolled
            player_chips = player_chips + ...
        else:
            # update player_chips based on what player 2 rolled
            player_chips = player_chips + ...

        # if the game is over, return the number of turns played
        if __(e)__:
            return __(f)__

    # if no one wins after 300 turns, return 300
    return 300


Problem 13.1

What goes in blank (a)?

Answer: i % 3

We are trying to find which player’s turn it is within the for-loop. We know that each player: Dylan, Harshi, and Selim will play a maximum of 100 turns. Notice that the for-loop goes from 0 to 299. This means we need to manipulate the i somehow to figure out whose turn it is. The hint here is extremely helpful. The maximum remainder we want to have is 2 (recall the players are called Player 0, Player 1, and Player 2). This means we can utilize % to give us the remainder of i / 3, which would tell us which player’s turn it is.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 41%.


Problem 13.2

What goes in blank (b)?

Answer: player_chips[current_player]

Recall np.random.choice() must be given an array and can then optionally be given a size to get multiple values instead of one. We know that player_chips is an array of the chips for each player. To access a specific player’s chips we can use [current_player] because the 1st index of player_chips corresponds to Player 0, the 2nd index corresponds to Player 1, and the 3rd index corresponds to Player 2.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 51%.


Problem 13.3

What goes in blank (c)?

Answer: `np.count_nonzero(roll == “L”)

We know that if we do roll == “L” then we get an array which changes the index of each element in roll to True if that element equals “L” and False otherwise. We can then use np.count_nonzero() to count the number of True values there are.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 61%.


Problem 13.4

What goes in blank (d)?

Answer: [-(L_count + C_count + R_count), L_count, R_count]

Recall the rules of the games:

  1. L means give the chip to the player on their left.
  2. R means give the chip to the player on their right.
  3. C means put the chip in the center of the table. This chip is now out of play.
  4. Dot means do nothing (or keep the chip)

If we are Player 0 the person to our left is Player 1 and the person to our right is Player 2. We want to update player_chips to appropriately give the players to our left and right chips. This means we can add our own array with the element at index 1 be our L_count and the element at index 2 be our R_count. We need to also subtract the tokens we are giving away and C_count, so in index 0 we have: -(L_count + C_count + R_count).


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 51%.


Problem 13.5

What goes in blank (e)?

Answer: np.count_nonzero(player_chips) == 1

We want to stop the game early if only one person has chips. To do this we can use np.count_nonzero(player_chips) to count the number of elements inside player_chips that have chips. If the player does not have chips then their index would have 0 inside of it.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 61%.


Problem 13.6

What goes in blank (f)?

Answer: i + 1

To find the number of turns played we simply need to add 1 to i. We do this because i starts at 0!


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 53%.



Problem 14

Suppose the function simulate_lcr from the last question has been correctly implemented, and we want to use it to see how many turns a game of Left, Center, Right usually takes.

Note: You can answer this question even if you couldn’t answer the previous one.

Consider the code and histogram below.

turns = np.array([])
for i in np.arange(10000):
    turns = np.append(turns, simulate_lcr())
(bpd.DataFrame().assign(turns=turns).plot(kind="hist", density = True, ec="w", bins = np.arange(0, 66, 6)))


Problem 14.1

Does this histogram show a probability distribution or an empirical distribution?

Answer: Empirical Distribution

An empirical distribution is derived from observed data, in this case, the results of 10,000 simulated games of Left, Center, Right. It represents the frequencies of outcomes (number of turns taken in each game) as observed in these simulations.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 54%.


Problem 14.2

What is the probability of a game of Left, Center, Right lasting 30 turns or more? Choose the closest answer below.

Answer: 0.06

We’re being asked to find the proportion of values in the histogram that are greater than or equal to 30, which is equal to the area of the histogram to the right of 30. Immediately, we can rule out 0.01 and 0.60, because the area to the right of 30 is more than 1% of the total area and less than 60% of the total area.

The problem then boils down to determining whether the area to the right of 30 is 0.06 or 0.10. While you could solve this by finding the areas of the three bars individually and adding them together, there’s a quicker solution. Notice that the x-axis gridlines – the vertical lines in the background in white – appear every 10 units (at x = 0, x = 10, x = 20, x = 30, and so on) and the y-axis gridlines – the horizontal lines in the background in white – appear every 0.01 units (at y = 0, y = 0.01, y = 0.02, and so on). There’s a “box” in the grid between x = 30 and x = 40, and between y = 0 and y = 0.01. The area of that box is (40 - 30) \cdot 0.01 = 0.1, which means that if a bar book up the entire box, then 10% of the values in this distribution would fall into that bar’s bin.

So, to decide whether the area to the right of 30 is closer to 0.06 or 0.1, we can estimate whether the three bars to the right of 30 would fill up the entire box described above (that is, the box from 30 to 40 on the x-axis and 0 to 0.1 on the y-axis), or whether it would be much emptier. Visually, if you broke off the area that is to the right of 40 in the histogram and put it in the box we’ve just described, then quite a bit of the box would still be empty. As such, the area to the right of 30 is less than the area of the box, so it’s less than 0.1, and so the only valid option is 0.06.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 50%.


Problem 14.3

Suppose a player with n chips takes their turn. What is the probability that they will have to put at least one chip into the center? Give your answer as a mathematical expression involving n.

Answer: 1 - (\frac{5}{6})^n

Recall that the die used to play this game has six sides: L, C, R, Dot, Dot, Dot. The chance of getting C is \frac{1}{6}. So we can take the compliment of that to get \frac{5}{6}, which is the probability of not putting at least one chip into the center and then doing (\frac{5}{6})^n. Once again we must use the complement rule as to convert it back to the probability of putting at least one chip into the center. This gives us the answer: 1 - (\frac{5}{6})^n


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 56%.


Problem 14.4

Suppose a player with n chips takes their turn. What is the probability that they will end their turn with n chips? Give your answer as a mathematical expression involving n.

Answer: \left( \frac{1}{2} \right)^n

Recall, when it is a player’s turn, they roll one die for each of the n chips they have. The die that they roll has six faces. In three of those faces (L, C, and R), they end up losing a chip, and in the other three of those faces (dot, dot, and dot), they keep the chip. So, for each chip, there is a \frac{3}{6} = \frac{1}{2} chance that they get to keep it after the turn. Since each die roll is independent, there is a \frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{1}{2} \cdot ... \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \left( \frac{1}{2} \right)^n chance that they get to keep all n chips. (Note that there is no way to earn more chips during a turn, so that’s not something we need to consider.)


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 69%.



Problem 15

At a recent game night, you played several new board games and liked them so much that you now want to buy copies for yourself.

The DataFrame stores is shown below in full. Each row represents a game you want to buy and a local board game store where that game is available for purchase. If a game is not available at a certain store, there will be no row corresponding to that store and that game.


Problem 15.1

The DataFrame prices has five rows. Below we merge stores with prices and display the output in full.

merged = stores.merge(prices, on="Game")
merged


In the space below, specify what the DataFrame prices could look like. The column labels should go in the top row, and the row labels (index) should go in the leftmost row. You may not need to use all the columns provided, but you are told that prices has five rows, so you should use all rows provided.

Note: There are several correct answers to this question.

Answer:

We can use the merged DataFrame to figure out the prices that correlate to each game in stores. We see in merged the price for Tickets to Ride should be 47.99, so we create a row for that game. We repeat this process to find the remaining rows. Since we know that prices have 5 rows we then make a game and price up. Note that in the solution above the last row (index 4) has “Sushi Go” and 9.99. These can be any game or any price that is not listed in indexes 0 to 4. This is because prices has 5 rows and when we use .merge() since the game “Sushi Go” is not in stores it will not be added.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 84%.


Suppose merged now contains all the available games and their corresponding prices at each store (in particular, a given game is sold for the same price at all stores). You want to buy as many games as possible but you only want to go to one store. Which store should you go to maximize the number of games you can buy?

Fill in the blanks so that where_to_go evaluates to the name of the store you should buy your games from.

where_to_go = (merged.groupby("Store").__(a)__.sort_values(by="Price", ascending=False).__(b)__)


Problem 15.2

What goes in blank (a)?

Answer: count()

The problem asks us which store would allow us to buy as many games as possible. The provided code is merge.groupby(“Store”).__a__. We want to use the aggregate method that allows us to find the number of games in each store. The aggregation method for this would be count().


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 87%.


Problem 15.3

What goes in blank (b)?

Answer: index[0]

Recall groupby() will cause the unique values from the column “Store” to be in the index. The remaining part of the code sorts the DataFrame so that the store with the most games is at the top. This means the row at index 0 has the store and most number of games inside of the DataFrame. To grab the element at the 1st index we simply do index[0].


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 53%.


Problem 15.4

Suppose you go to the store where_to_go and buy one copy of each of the available games that you enjoyed at game night. How much money will you spend? Write one line of code that evaluates to the answer, using the merged DataFrame and no others.

Answer: merged[merged.get(“Store”) == where_to_go].get(“Price”).sum()

We want to figure out how much money we would spend if we went to where_to_go, which is the store where we can buy as many games as possible. We can simply query the merged DataFrame to only contain the rows where the store is equal to where_to_go. We then can simply get the “Price” column and add all of the values up by doing .sum() on the Series.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 74%.



Problem 16

We collect data on the play times of 100 games of Chutes and Ladders (sometimes known as Snakes and Ladders) and want to use this data to perform a hypothesis test.


Problem 16.1

Which of the following pairs of hypotheses can we test using this data?

Option 1: Null Hypothesis: In a random sample of Chutes and Ladders games, the average play time is 30 minutes. Alternative Hypothesis: In a random sample of Chutes and Ladders games, the average play time is not 30 minutes.

Option 2: Null Hypothesis: In a random sample of Chutes and Ladders games, the average play time is not 30 minutes. Alternative Hypothesis: In a random sample of Chutes and Ladders games, the average play time is 30 minutes

Option 3: Null Hypothesis: A game of Chutes and Ladders takes, on average, 30 minutes to play. Alternative Hypothesis: A game of Chutes and Ladders does not take, on average, 30 minutes to play.

Option 4: Null Hypothesis: A game of Chutes and Ladders does not take, on average, 30 minutes to play. Alternative Hypothesis: A game of Chutes and Ladders takes, on average, 30 minutes to play.

Answer: Option 3

Option 3: is the correct answer because the Null Hypothesis can be applicable to the real world, and thus simulated, and has the test statistic “equal” to our prediction of 30 minutes. The Alternative Hypothesis is also correctly different from the Null Hypothesis by saying the test statistic is “not equal” to our prediction of 30 minutes.

Option 1: We want the Null Hypothesis or Alternative Hypothesis to be applicable to the real world, which means that by having the start “In a random sample…” we are discrediting this in the real world.

Option 2: Like Option 1, we want the Null Hypothesis or Alternative Hypothesis to be applicable to the real world, which means that by having the start “In a random sample…” we are discrediting this in the real world.

Option 4: This answer is wrong because the Null Hypothesis should be focused on figuring out the positive test statistic, in this case average. In other words, let u be the average time to play Chutes and Ladders and let u<sub>0<\sub> be 30 minutes. The Null Hypothesis should be u = u<sub>0<\sub> and the Alternative Hypothesis should be something different, in this case: u != u<sub>0<\sub>.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 65%.


Problem 16.2

We use our collected data to construct a 95% CLT-based confidence interval for the average play time of a game of Chutes and Ladders. This 95% confidence interval is [26.47, 28.47]. For the 100 games for which we collected data, what is the mean and standard deviation of the play times?

Answer: mean = 27.47 and SD = 5

One of the key properties of the normal distribution is that about 95% of values lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean. The Central Limit Theorem states that the distribution of the sample mean is roughly normal, which means that to create this CLT-based 95% confidence interval, we used the 2 standard deviations rule.

What we’re given, then, is the following:

\begin{align*} \text{Sample Mean} + 2 \cdot \text{SD of Distribution of Possible Sample Means} &= 28.47 \\ \text{Sample Mean} - 2 \cdot \text{SD of Distribution of Possible Sample Means} &= 26.47 \end{align*}

The sample mean is halfway between 26.47 and 28.47, which is 27.47. Substituting this into the first equation gives us

\begin{align*}27.47 + 2 \cdot \text{SD of Distribution of Possible Sample Means} &= 28.47\\2 \cdot \text{SD of Distribution of Possible Sample Means} &= 1 \\ \text{Distribution of Possible Sample Means} &= 0.5\end{align*}

It can be tempting to conclude that the sample standard deviation is 0.5, but it’s not – the SD of the sample mean’s distribution is 0.5. Remember, the SD of the sample mean’s distribution is given by the square root law:

\text{SD of Distribution of Possible Sample Means} = \frac{\text{Population SD}}{\sqrt{\text{Sample Size}}} \approx \frac{\text{Sample SD}}{\sqrt{\text{Sample Size}}}

We don’t know the population SD, so we’ve used the sample SD as an estimate. As such, we have that

\text{SD of Distribution of Possible Sample Means} = 0.5 = \frac{\text{Sample SD}}{\sqrt{\text{Sample Size}}} = \frac{\text{Sample SD}}{\sqrt{100}}

So, \text{Sample SD} = 0.5 \cdot \sqrt{100} = 0.5 \cdot 10 = 5.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 64%.


Problem 16.3

Does the CLT say that the distribution of play times of the 100 games is roughly normal?

Answer: No

The Central Limit Theorem states that the distribution of the sample mean or the sample sum is roughly normal. The distribution of play times is a sample of size 100 drawn from the population of play times; the Central Limit Theorem doesn’t say anything about a population or any one sample.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 45%.


Problem 16.4

Of the two hypotheses you selected in part (a), which one is better supported by the data?

Answer: Alternative Hypothesis

To test the null hypothesis, we check whether 30 is in the confidence interval we constructed. 30 is not between 26.47 and 28.47, so we reject the null hypothesis that the average play time is 30 minutes.


Difficulty: ⭐️⭐️

The average score on this problem was 87%.



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